On June 13th, US President Joe Biden held a press conference alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to announce a ten-year bilateral security arrangement between America and Ukraine; this includes: training programs, joint military manoeuvres, and aid with military equipment.
Biden stated the goal of the agreement is to strengthen “Ukraine’s credible defense and deterrence capabilities for the long term […] not by sending American troops to fight in Ukraine, but by proving weapons, and ammunition, expanding intelligence sharing, continuing to train brave Ukrainian troops at bases in Europe and the United States”. The agreement was described as a “bridge” to NATO membership, in the White House’s words.
Also announced was a $50 billion loan of aid from America and the EU to Ukraine to repair its infrastructure and purchase new weapons. As US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote, the loan is planned to be repaid using interest from the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets.
Why this announcement is significant:
1. The US is positioning itself closer to Ukraine in the long term. If Biden retains control of the White House, Eastern Europe – specifically Ukraine and Russia – will continue to be a major theatre of importance for the US, balancing commitments there with those in the Indo-Pacific. KSG assesses that this agreement is likely to escalate tensions with Russia further.
2. It indicates a new fight for Congressional funding. This arrangement’s proposed funding for the loan is similar to current US funding for military aid to Israel. There is likely to be considerable pushback from Republicans in Congress to fund the US part of the loan. Meanwhile, President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said the G-7 would participate in the loan, and the EU may contribute up to half of the money. Japan has also pledged $4.5 billion in aid.
3. It is unlikely to change hesitancy to have Ukraine join NATO, nor Ukraine’s immediate military problems. Biden and other leaders are apprehensive about admitting Ukraine to NATO given it would likely drag the Alliance into a war with Russia. This agreement is a place-holder and does not resolve the stark difference of opinion between the Ukrainian leadership, who feel the security protection of NATO is essential, and NATO leaders like the US and Germany who are worried about escalating tensions on its eastern flank. Moreover, KSG does not assess that Ukraine’s precarious military situation will be immediately altered by this deal.
Looking forward:
This agreement faces a key problem: Biden is facing an uphill battle for re-election against former president Donald Trump, who has been opposed to US funding for Ukraine. Moreover, either party can terminate the arrangement which would occur six months after the announcement of withdrawal – leaving open the door for a Trump retreat from Ukraine.
Therefore, if Trump withdraws from the partnership to placate Russia or disengage from Ukraine, this agreement puts faith in US alliance commitments under risk. It emphasizes that the US may rapidly shift its strategic foreign policy engagements from administration to administration. For the moment then, the joint US-Ukraine security arrangement is a symbolic move which places the G-7, US, and EU more squarely behind Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
This announcement also comes at a time of increased tit-for-tat American and Russian military action. Russia’s recent military exercises in the Atlantic, and a Russian nuclear submarine and warships visiting Cuba can be interpreted as a response to recent US policies toward Ukraine; for instance, the US is now allowing Ukraine to use its weapons to strike Russian military targets in Russia. KSG assess that similar actions from Russia in response to this US-Ukrainian agreement are likely .
This agreement is likely to be a fierce matter of debate within Congress, and another point of disagreement between Trump and Biden during their debate this month, and for the rest of the campaign.
By Joel Battle, Head of Intelligence for North America