Note: Given the importance of this topic to our subscribers, KSG will release an in-depth geopolitical intelligence report on China-Africa Relations on 1 October, 2024. This Situation Report acts as an immediate and brief summary of the recent summit.
Key Takeaways:
The 2024 FOCAC Summit emphasised China’s expanding influence and financial commitments, with a $50.7 billion funding and a focus on economic cooperation, infrastructure, and job creation.
China’s approach focuses on a strategic shift towards green development and industrial modernisation for high-tech industries, clean energy, and technical training, marking a departure from traditional investments and promoting diversified sustainable economic growth in Africa.
The Summit underscored China’s dual focus on balancing security and economic interests, with Beijing committing military assistance and training, reflecting its aim to safeguard regional stability and counterbalance Western influence.
China’s strengthened Sino-African partnership intensifies competition with global powers like the United States, Europe, Japan, and India, reshaping global governance to favour developing nations and boosting the geopolitical importance of the Global South.
Despite China’s promises of mutual benefit and development, concerns over debt sustainability and financial dependency persist, highlighting the need for Africa to balance Chinese investments with diversified global partnerships.
Summit Overview
The 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) highlighted China’s expanding influence in Africa through substantial financial commitments, strategic investments, and collaborative efforts in infrastructure, clean energy, and job creation. China announced a $50.7 billion (360 billion in yuan) financial assistance commitment for Africa over the next three years, reaffirming the plan to de-dollarise the financial world and internationalise the Chinese yuan. Xi pledged the creation of 1 million jobs and the support of 30 infrastructure projects in Africa, boosting African economic development and regional connectivity.
Beijing’s 2025-27 Action Plan emphasises a ‘shared future in the new era’ with a strategic pivot from traditional investment towards high-tech industries, green development, and technical training. This year’s summit strengthened diplomatic and economic ties between China and Africa, exemplified by Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu stating relations “are at their best in history.”
The 2024 FOCAC outcomes also included nuclear technology cooperation, solar energy projects, and support for electric vehicle initiatives, reflecting China’s commitment to diversifying African economies beyond raw materials and promoting sustainable growth.
Despite a recent decline in investment and loans of large-scale infrastructure projects, the summit underscored China’s promises to African development towards common interests of South-South cooperation. The strategic alliance of this Summit represented the growing importance of reshaping global governance in favour of the developing nations and emerging economies, with China as a refreshing partner for Africa with its “small and beautiful” projects offering the region a broader diversified economic vision beyond mining, gas, and oil. China also committed $140 million (1 billion yuan) in military aid and training for over 6,000 African military personnel, highlighting security cooperation as a key component of the China-African partnership. Despite concerns over financial dependency and debt sustainability, FOCAC reinforced China’s role as Africa’s largest bilateral trading partner, and a key ally in advancing the Global South’s agreements across agriculture, mining, trade, and energy. China-Africa cooperation, centred on multilateralism and mutual benefit, was underlined at this years’ summit, aligning with Africa’s long-term development objectives and deeper integration into the global economy. Xi emphasised the creation of “a high-level community with a shared future, focused on modernisation and mutual benefit.”
This years’ FOCAC Summit emphasised China’s strategic focus on enhancing economic ties with Africa through its Belt and Road Initiative. China committed 360 billion yuan to support 30 infrastructure projects and pledged to create one million jobs, aiming to drive market expansion, economic diversification, and industrialisation in Africa. China fulfilled promises of growing trade with the African region fostering the transformation of African economies towards independent development with economic integration, bilateral cooperation and regional connectivity. African leaders, like South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, expressed concerns about trade deficits and called for China to purchase more finished African goods instead of raw materials. In response to these trade imbalance critiques, China has committed to increasing imports of African goods and services, and enhancing local capabilities through manufacturing partnerships and technical training in healthcare, industry and business.
Looking Forward:
KSG assesses that China and Africa will likely be successful in their deepening collaboration efforts. These partnerships will likely enhance Africa’s industrial diversification, technological advancements, and meet Beijing’s broader goals of expanding influence and countering Western engagement.
African reliance on China is likely to continue to grow due to the immediate economic benefits of Chinese investments, such as infrastructure financing, job creation and technical support, outweighing long-term risk concerns over debt sustainability (as perceived by African leaders).
KSG assesses that the strengthening of the Sino-African partnership is anticipated to present a growing strategic challenge for the United States, particularly as competition with China intensifies globally. Washington is likely to ramp up efforts to re-engage with Africa through renewed foreign investment initiatives to counterbalance China’s influence and reassert its presence in the region, particularly critical minerals.
Furthermore, KSG assesses that China’s deepening engagement with Africa will likely force India and Japan to re-evaluate their strategies in the region. As China positions itself as the voice of the Global South, India and Japan may struggle to keep pace and will need to intensify their diplomatic and economic efforts like organising similar summits or enhancing bilateral relations, to compete with Beijing’s ambitions.
The growing Sino-African partnership will likely intensify global competition, particularly within the ‘Africa Plus One’ frameworks, as China counters rival pressures from the US, EU, Japan, and India. China’s investments in green technology and industrial modernisation highlight its broader strategy to reshape Africa’s economic landscape, challenge Western focus on critical minerals.
KSG assesses that while China remains a crucial partner for African nations, these countries are likely to balance their engagement with Beijing by continuing to explore opportunities with the US, EU, and other global actors. African nations will continue seeking diverse partnerships to avoid over-dependence on China, reflecting a strategic approach to navigate the shifting geopolitical landscape.
KSG assesses that the green technology sector in Africa will experience substantial growth in the next three years, driven by increasing investments in renewable energy and green project initiatives as highlighted in the 2024 FOCAC Summit. As global competition intensifies, particularly with the US and Europe, China’s global strategic partnerships are likely to focus on expanding sales and transferring green tech to African markets, supporting both economic diversification and energy transition.
KSG therefore assesses that there are likely to be continued opportunities for Western finance, energy, critical mineral, defence and construction companies in Africa over the coming decade. However, this growing Chinese influence is going to make operating conditions increasingly difficult for Western companies, and Western Governments will need to work with industry to accommodate access on the continent.
With China offering military aid and security assistance to Africa, there is the potential for China to replace the role Russia had on the continent over the past 20 years. These overtures by China make NATO efforts to engage with the region and ensure stability harder, given African nations have multiple partners of choice. KSG interviews and wargames concluded that growing Chinese security influence is unlikely to bring stability to conflict-embroiled parts of Africa, and thus the regional threats that emanate from NATO’s southern flank are likely to continue, additionally with growing military presence by an increasingly capable rival.