Key Takeaways:
Belarus’ accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation embodies the organisation’s ambitions to majorly influence global security governance, contributing to the now ‘multipolar world’.
The signing of the Astana Declaration marks the codification of the SCO’s goal of ushering in a “new era” that stands against “division, confrontation, and hegemonism”, especially in the Eurasian region.
President Xi Jinping’s major presence at the summit further pushes Eurasian security governance towards Chinese influence, but India persists as a potential agenda-setter in regional cooperation.
The SCO's increasing integration and cooperation signify rising Chinese and Russian influence in Eurasia, potentially diminishing Western economic and political impact in the region.
Summit Overview
Commencing on July 3, 2024, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) met for the 23rd annual session in Astana, Kazakhstan. With ongoing geopolitical instability caused by Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and China’s mounting pressure on Taiwan and the South China Sea – both of which were not mentioned explicitly in public communication – the summit’s lofty rhetoric revealed much about major players’ strategic ambitions on the world stage.
The organisation, founded by China and Russia in 2001, is a multilateral forum that discusses a range of Eurasian issues, notably in international security and economic integration. Since its founding, eight other member states have acceded to the organisation – this includes Belarus, who joined this year, and Iran, who joined in 2023.
At the summit itself, President Vladimir Putin’s declaration that “the SCO’s proactive position in international affairs is much needed”, and that a “multipolar world is already a reality”, underscored the ambitious goals of the organisation. There were two developments that will plot the course for the SCO’s future: the accession of Belarus, and the adoption of the Astana Declaration.
Belarus, being a reliable Russian security partner, has strategic incentives for greater integration with other aligned states – notably, China. The SCO summit galvanised this cooperation, with Belarussian accession being immediately followed by a joint counterterrorism exercise with China on the Polish border, building on the principles discussed in Astana.
The SCO’s growing membership similarly parallels China’s explicit and consistent references to influencing international peace and security. Embodying this interest, the Astana Declaration is being presented as a major multilateral ‘statement of intent’ on “world unity for justice, harmony and development”, being positioned as a “strong message of the new era, one that calls for solidarity, cooperation and justice, rather than division, confrontation, and hegemonism”. Especially when noting Chinese criticisms of the US’ current global leadership, multilateral fora like the SCO go far in codifying a desire to establish a “new era” in global security’ legal and economic governance.
Outside of these two developments, KSG noted the standout presence of India, represented by Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar, in the absence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Jaishankar’s address subtly undercut the Chinese domination of the SCO and the Eurasian security environment, as he emphasised Indian successes in upholding supply chains, global interconnectivity, and respecting state sovereignty, regardless of the consensus views established by China. Despite his absence in Astana, PM Modi’s visit to Russia on July 8, 2024 will see Indian-Russian relations developing beyond the purview of the Chinese-led SCO.
Looking forward:
KSG assesses that the Astana summit demonstrates how Eurasian security cooperation is growing, centralised around the SCO – consolidating significant Chinese and Russian influence across the region. Claiming a “multipolar world” is here, the SCO continues its attempts to mount a challenge to Western-led institutions of security and economic cooperation.
Increasing cooperation and integration by SCO countries is likely to harm Western governments and companies’ ability to influence and do business in the region. KSG assessment noted the energy sector as particularly likely to come under operational challenge. Harmonised trade tariffs and tax increases being just two examples the SCO could collaborate on against Western actors.
KSG contends that deeper Eurasian cooperation, including joint initiatives across a range of security and economic policy areas, builds the economic infrastructure of the Eurasian region. This coincides with a likely inflow of both Chinese capital and political influence in the region. KSG believes China’s role and influence in the organisation and region is likely to quickly grow over the next five to ten years, while the West’s will recede.
By Joaquin Magno, Indo-Pacific Analyst.