Key Points:
Trump and Biden offered contrasting views on foreign affairs and a number of other key issues.
President Biden’s debate performance is unlikely to generate the confidence he needs to catch up to Trump’s slight lead in the polls. KSG assesses that his performance is more likely to shake voters’ confidence than to gain support from undecided voters, or defectors who voted for him in 2020.
Biden’s performance places a greater burden on Democrats’ future campaigning – to regain an image of strength and bring voters to the Democratic side.
On 27 June, 2024, former US president, Donald Trump, and current president, Joe Biden, went head-to-head in their first presidential debate. Both candidates offered vastly divergent views on a number of issues, including inflation, foreign affairs, immigration, climate change, and abortion.
As expected, foreign policy was a big area of disagreement between the candidates. KSG assesses these disagreements are likely to continue, as the current international crises captivating American attention – Gaza and Ukraine – are unlikely to subside before November. For instance, Trump accused Biden of encouraging Russia to attack Ukraine: “If we had a real president, a president that knew – that was respected by Putin, he would never have invaded Ukraine […] He did nothing to stop it, in fact I think he encouraged Russia from [sic.] going in”.[i] Immediately after this point, Trump suggested it was Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan which encouraged Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Trump also claimed Hamas would never have attacked Israel under his leadership because “Iran was broke with me, I wouldn’t let anybody do business with them” and they had no money to subsidize Hamas.[ii] These statements demonstrate Trump’s foremost foreign policy goal is to project American strength. Biden, meanwhile, expressed his commitment to American alliances and to Ukraine.
The largest impression left by the debate was the differences in temperament and appearance created by the candidates. Biden played defence, his voice raspy from what his campaign says is a cold. Trump was on the attack, and frequently conjured the image that America was prosperous under him, and Biden has frittered away his achievements.
Looking Forward:
KSG assesses that this debate will likely highlight to voters that the central issue in this election is the candidates themselves. Biden and Trump, along with their surrogates, are fighting a war of attrition to attack their opponent’s personality and their suitability to be president. Trump’s campaign has focused on Biden’s age, and perceived weakness on foreign policy and immigration; Biden’s campaign focuses on Trump’s criminal indictments, issues with his legacy, and portrays him as a threat to democracy itself.
Therefore, KSG believes the nature of the US election is unlikely to change from its status quo, and Trump and Biden will continue to attack each other personally.
Based on KSG's assessment of public sentiment, the US public’s perception has been predominantly that Biden’s performance was poor. Biden’s debate performance has raised anxieties throughout the Democratic Party about his age and suitability to run. Therefore, KSG assesses Biden is unlikely to accomplish his goal of bringing defectors and undecided voters back to the Democratic Party in the short-term. Future polling figures will indicate how his support has suffered after this debate.
[i] Quotation starting from 28:53 in this recording of the debate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqG96G8YdcE.
[ii] Quotation starts at 30:00 from the same recording.
By Joel Battle, Head of Americas Analysis.