Key Takeaways:
Lloyd Austin's reaffirmation of the "ironclad" American commitment to the Philippines underscores US efforts to maintain regional stability amid Sino-Philippine tensions in the South China Sea.
China's aggressive grey-zone tactics heighten geopolitical risks in the strategically vital South China Sea, impacting global trade.
Enhanced US-Philippine defence ties, including missile deployments and significant military aid, signal deeper American involvement in the Indo-Pacific, escalating Sino-American and Sino-Philippine tensions.
On 26 June, 2024, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reaffirmed the “ironclad” American commitment to the Philippines following recent intensification of Sino-Philippine maritime contestation. With the Philippines embroiled in fierce territorial competition with China, KSG notes that continued American resolve contributes to stability in this major supply route, but also to Sino-American polarization.
On the 17 June, 2024, members of the China Coast Guard and Maritime Militia intercepted an attempted resupply mission with water cannons and deliberate blocking manoeuvres, seizing firearms and supplies meant to relieve the Philippine presence on the BRP Sierra Madre, a beached vessel on Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea.
Amidst China’s wider efforts to assert sovereignty over its ‘Nine-Dash Line’ (pictured below), this is nothing new. Aggressive manoeuvres, water cannons, and other forms of intimidation that skirt below the threshold of outright aggression – known as grey-zone tactics – have come to define the fierce competition in the South China Sea.
The South China Sea is arguably the most strategically significant body of water in the global economy. With 80% of world trade, estimated at about $5.3 trillion, and strategically significant ports like Singapore, Guangzhou, Port Klang, Hong Kong, Xiamen, and Laem Chabang on its coasts, intensified geopolitical risks in the South China Sea have global commercial ramifications.
Source: CSISl, AFP News Agency
Secretary Austin’s statement, in response to continued Chinese aggression, encapsulates a marked increase in both Philippine-American defence cooperation, and American interest in the Indo-Pacific. Beyond the US’ now multiple references to “ironclad commitments” against Chinese incursions, April saw the American Army deploy mid-range missiles in the Philippines for the first time, constituting deeper security cooperation and commitment. More broadly, at a defence summit in Singapore, including the Presidents of Taiwan and the Philippines, Senator Chris Coons announced a $4 billion foreign military aid budget, with Asia identified as a ‘hot zone’ for this aid.
Why is this significant?
KSG assesses that Secretary Austin’s most recent statement embodies wider trends that will affect the strategic environment in this economically imperative region. In particular, these developments:
Encapsulate the US’ interests in the Indo-Pacific, notably the idea of upholding a “shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific”, a goal that Washington is increasingly trying to achieve with defence cooperation and strategic deterrence.
Signal to existing and potential US partners that Washington is increasingly interested and willing to maintain the stability and navigability of the South China Sea through diplomatic security engagement.
Entrench regional actors’ positions, specifically with Washington’s growing investment and presence in the Indo-Pacific, intensified grey-zone tactics, and bolder rhetoric, the Sino-American and Sino-Philippine relationships have become notably more adversarial.
By Joaquin Magno, Indo-Pacific Analyst.