Key Takeaways:
Israel’s desire to increase conscription numbers suggests that Israel assess escalation with Hezbollah as likely.
Israel continues to redeploy soldiers from Gaza to its border with Lebanon.
Worsening conflict between Hezbollah-Israel jeopardizes energy security for Israel and its neighbours, along with increased insurance premiums for commercial maritime operations.
The Israel Supreme Court mandated the conscription of ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) Jews into the Israel Defence Forces (IDF). The court also ruled to end state funding for yeshivas (religious schools) whose students are eligible for conscription but have not enlisted. The decision challenges long-standing arrangements between the Israeli state and the ultra-Orthodox community.
The Supreme Court stated that there was no legal basis for exempting religious students. The law has long been contentious within Israeli society, as the burden of national defence falls disproportionately on secular and more moderate groups within society. This grievance has been exasperated by the length of the conflict in Gaza, which has been Israel’s longest against Hamas, and has witnessed reservists being called up on three separate occasions.
The ruling could further undermine the Israeli government’s stability. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition depends upon the participation of two Haredi parties, both of which have threatened to withdraw their support when the topic is discussed on past occasions. Yet moderare members of the coalition support their conscription.
KSG assesses that the timing of the supreme court’s decision points to a belief in the Israeli Government that there is a high chance that an open conflict will erupt between Israel and Hezbollah. Additional soldiers will therefore be required for such a conflict. This coincides with a series of other decisions:
Israel has been redeploying soldiers from Gaza to its border with Lebanon.
Israeli military officials have ‘approved and validated plans for an offensive in Lebanon’.
Consequences of Escalation:
An offensive against Hezbollah would almost certainly not coincide with an official cessation of hostilities in Gaza.
An offensive would likely jeopardize any discussions to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. A normalization would entail the creation of a legal and regulatory framework that allows for the pursuit of closer business ties and investments between both sides.
Commercial maritime operation should expect insurance premiums to remain high for passages through the Red Sea. As a close ally of Hezbollah, KSG assesses it is highly likely that Houthi militants will continue – if not step up their attacks – on merchant shipping in the Red Sea and the Guld of Aden given the escalation.
KSG assesses that Israel’s coastal gas fields will be targeted by Hezbollah in the event of a direct conflict. A direct attack on them may not even be necessary, as the fear of an attack would potentially lead the Israeli Government to shut down gas fields. This would place Israel’s energy infrastructure under severe strain, as its main source of energy is natural gas. This will also prove disruptive to neighbouring countries, as was seen with the ten day shut shown of the Tamar gas field which led to widespread blackouts in Egypt.
By Jake Glasmacher, Middle East & North Africa Analyst.