Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić prepares to back Rio Tinto’s (RT) lithium mining project; Vučić recently told the Financial Times that he was satisfied with RT’s environmental assurances and that the Jadar mine will be capable of producing “58,000 tons of lithium per year” or “enough for 17% of electric vehicle (EV) production in Europe”.
Key takeaways:
1. The Jadar project has the potential to mobilise mass protests in Serbia.
Following the Serbian General Elections in 2022, Belgrade revoked RT’s licences related to the Jadar project. This U-turn came after massive environmental protests between 2021 and 2022, spearheaded by the Kreni-Promeni opposition movement, which launched a petition demanding a halt to lithium exploration in Serbia, which currently stands at over 295,000 signatures.
Following Vučić’s FT interview, Savo Manojlovic, leader of Kreni-Promeni, released a statement calling on Serbians to oppose the Jadar project. Radomir Lazovic, a leader of Serbia’s Green-Left Front, also told Reuters, “We are ready to fight this idea through actions, protests, all legal avenues and by seeking international support”.
2. Vučić’s resurrection of the Rio Tinto deal is particularly significant as Serbia attempts to balance complex geopolitical relations with China, Russia and the EU.
Despite a history of complex relations between Serbia and the EU, Vučić indicated that he will seek EU involvement with Jadar and other projects in the EV value chain.
A candidate since 2012, Serbia has faced a difficult path to EU accession. EU member states have expressed concern over Serbian electoral fraud and the erosion of institutions, in addition to Vučić’s enduring relationship with Russia and growing economic partnership with China.
However, the EU has a significant interest in Serbian lithium, evidenced by the letter of intent signed by Serbia and the European Commission in September 2022. The EU is facing a considerable shortfall in its lithium supply; therefore, Brussels views the Jadar mine as a key facet in reshoring the EU’s lithium supply as global demand and geopolitical tension over resource access is set to increase substantially over the coming decades.
Looking forward:
1. KSG assesses that it is highly likely that if the Jadar project is approved, a second round of civil unrest will emerge. However, it is unclear whether opposition groups will manage to mobilise numbers similar to the 2021-2022 protests and ultimately stop the mining project.
2. While Serbia and the EU may develop closer economic ties over projects in the EV value chain, this is highly unlikely to mark a shift in Serbian geopolitical alignment towards the EU. Instead, closer cooperation on such projects reflects a mutually beneficial arrangement wherein the EU gains a local lithium supply, and Serbia reaps the economic benefits.
3. Therefore, under Vučić’s presidency, Serbia is highly likely to continue seeking closer cooperation in mutually beneficial areas with the EU while keeping diplomatic and economic doors open with Russia and China.
By Alexei Hoey, Chief Analyst