The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for former Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, and Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and First Deputy Minister of Defence, Valery Gerasimov.
The ICC alleges that the two men are responsible for the war crimes of directing attacks at civilian objects, causing excessive incidental harm to civilians or damage to civilian objects, in addition to crimes against humanity under Art. 7(1)(k) of the Rome Statute, between 10/10/22 and 09/03/23 in Ukraine.
The charges against Shoigu and Gerasimov reflect Russia’s large-scale missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. These attacks began on 10/10/2022 and resulted in the ICC issuing arrest warrants (under the same charges as Shoigu and Gerasimov) for Lieutenant General Sergei Kobylash and Admiral Viktor Sokolov in March 2024.
While the Russian Security Council dismissed the warrants, rejecting the ICC’s jurisdiction and framing their issuance as part of “the West’s hybrid war” against Russia, the new warrants reflect a continuation of the ICC’s investigation into the Situation in Ukraine launched on 02/03/2022.
The ICC has thus far issued arrest warrants for four other Russian officials; this includes the aforementioned warrants for Kobylash and Sokolov, in addition to Vladimir Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova, for whom warrants were issued in March 2023 for the alleged war crime of unlawful deportation of children from occupied (Ukrainian) territories.
KSG assesses that the ICC arrest warrants:
Are highly unlikely to lead to an arrest or trial. Firstly, Russia is not a member of the ICC and Art.61(1) of the Russian constitution prohibits the extradition of Russian nationals. Secondly, Art.63 of the Rome Statute essentially prohibits trials in absentia. Therefore, because the ICC lacks its own ‘police force’, the onus is on ICC member states to make arrests.
Are likely to impede international travel for Shoigu and Gerasimov. Both men must now avoid travelling to states which are parties to the Rome Statute, given that member states are obliged to execute ICC arrest warrants. This may lead to awkward diplomatic scenarios similar to Putin's conundrum in August 2023, when the Russian President decided against attending the BRICS summit hosted by South Africa in person.
Reflect a symbolic – political – move by the ICC. The ICC’s decision to issue arrest warrants for Shoigu and Gerasimov (two highly prominent and influential figures in Russia’s military and security apparatus) reflects the court’s continued moral condemnation of Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
By Alexei Hoey, Chief Analyst