Key Developments:
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has issued a stark warning that the Lebanese militant group would engage in warfare “without rules and without limits” if the conflict with Israel escalates further. In a recent televised address, Nasrallah extended threats to neighbouring Cyprus, declaring that Hezbollah would consider the country “part of the war” if it continued to allow Israel to utilise Cypriot airports and bases for military operations. Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides has reiterated that 'Cyprus is not part of Mideast war.’
Despite the threat, KSG assesses that an attack on Cyprus remains unlikely.
The address follows a period of intensified hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces. Cross-border clashes have been almost daily since the onset of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza in October. Recently, Hezbollah fired dozens of rockets into Israel following the killing of one of its senior commanders in an Israeli airstrike.
Nasrallah boasted about Hezbollah's military capabilities, including surveillance drones that have recorded footage of key sites in Israel. He warned that the group was prepared for a wider confrontation.
Significance of the Speech:
Potential for Wider Conflict: Nasrallah’s threats to Cyprus and the warning of unrestricted warfare signal the potential for a broader regional conflict. The highlighting of surveillance drone footage and Hezbollah’s capability to strike anywhere in Israel highlights the groups readiness for escalation.
Impact on Cyprus: Cyprus’s involvement, as warned by Nasrallah, complicates the geopolitical landscape. The country has held joint military exercises with Israel and signed a defence cooperation agreement in 2023. This relationship now places Cyprus in a precarious position as Hezbollah considers it a potential target, with the potential to also threaten the aid it provides to Gaza, which flows through some Cypriot ports. Despite the threat, KSG assesses that an attack on Cyprus remains unlikely.
International Response: The speech has prompted strong reactions. Israeli foreign minister Israel Katz stated that Israel was “very close to the moment of decision to change the rules against Hezbollah and Lebanon,” hinting at severe military repercussions for both Hezbollah and Lebanon if the situation escalates further.
Looking Forward:
Diplomatic Efforts: The United States is leading a diplomatic effort to de-escalate tensions, with White House adviser Amos Hochstein visiting both Lebanon and Israel. These efforts are crucial to prevent a full-scale war. The international community’s diplomatic efforts will remain crucial in mitigating the risk of a wider regional war.
Military Preparations: Despite diplomatic initiatives, both sides are preparing for potential conflict. Israel has approved operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon and increased troop readiness. Hezbollah's release of surveillance footage and Nasrallah’s threats suggest the group is also gearing up for a possible escalation.
Regional Stability: The continuation of hostilities poses a significant risk to regional stability. The direct involvement of additional countries like Cyprus could expand the conflict further, and potentially draw in more international actors. Although unlikely, if such an escalation occurs, this is likely to impact supply chains even further in the region, as well as impacting energy prices, insurance, and the price of consumer goods in the West.
Recommendations:
Militaries, foreign ministries, international aid organizations, and multinational companies alike would benefit from wargaming the scenario in which Cyprus is attacked, and the Israel-Hezbollah conflict intensifies. Such a change would have significant strategic and operational impacts that need rehearsal and preparation.
By Josh Naylor-Higgs, Lead Analyst