Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed a defensive pledge of cooperation and aid. Details are not clear yet, but it appears to include a general understanding of mutual defence.
Putin described the document as a defensive pact, and that North Korea has the right to defend itself. KSG assesses this document is illustrative of a more formal alliance with potential defensive obligations to one another in a range of adverse scenarios.
Significance of the Agreement:
1. Ties between Russia and North Korea are deepening, and Russia is solidifying its close network of allies needed to sustain its war effort in Ukraine. KSG expects Putin and Kim Jong-un to continue down this path of increasing ties with each other, and to potentially involve China further.
2. The agreement helps to formalize Russian and North Korean opposition to the West. As the US and Ukraine recently signed a military agreement, this agreement seems to mirror it. KSG assesses that this agreement signifies how the world is dividing into more clearly distinct strategic and economic blocs.
3. With the possibility of increased, formal Russian support, North Korea may become a greater regional threat in the Pacific. KSG estimates this effect, if it does occur, is likely not to materialize for at least 12 months, as Russia does not have the capacity to supply North Korea with military arms or intelligence. In the coming months, this relationship will be centred on supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Looking Forward:
Overall, this relationship will make the Indo-Pacific a more dangerous place for western defence, creating further instability risks to trade, commerce and investment. KSG would expect this agreement to:
Effect insurance prices for activities in the region
Create an increased reluctancy for investment in the Indo-Pacific
Force more companies to reconsider supply chain dependency in the region
By Joel Battle, Head of Intelligence for North America