Key takeaways:
The attempted assassination of Donald Trump will likely influence the future tone of the election campaign, Donald Trump’s electoral strategy, and Biden’s re-election campaign strategy. KSG assesses this influence will most likely appear through increased calls for unity, and reduced inflammatory rhetoric.
This incident is likely to further negatively impact Biden’s chances for re-election. Democrats will likely have to navigate this uncertain period of campaigning in combination with the fallout from last month’s poor debate performance by Biden.
Former President and current Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt on Saturday, 13 July at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. The gunman also killed one rally attendee and injured two more before being taken out by the Secret Service. In response to the shooting, Trump posted his thanks to the Secret Service, and “We will FEAR NOT” on his social media platform, Truth Social.
The following day, 14 July, President Joe Biden spoke during prime time from the Oval Office. He urged Americans to “lower the temperature” in electoral politics. He further stated that although the stakes of the election are high, political disagreement should never descend into violence, that “politics must never be a literal battlefield”. Some Republicans, including Republican Vice Presidential (VP) candidate J.D. Vance, have stated Biden’s and Democrats’ election rhetoric are directly responsible for the assassination attempt.
Looking forward:
1. The assassination attempt is likely to shape the tone of the election in the short to medium-term. KSG believes the direct hostility between Trump and Biden is likely to decrease in the short-term and may change form into the medium and longer-term. Biden has already cancelled a campaign visit to Austin and Democrats suspended their advertisement plans. However, following the announcement of J.D. Vance as Trump’s VP candidate, the Biden campaign has launched a webpage, and has put up billboards which criticize Vance’s policies and link him to Project 2025. Therefore, the direct attacks between Trump and Biden are likely to slow in the short to medium-term, while aggressive campaigning begins to renew its pace during the Republican Convention.
2. The assassination attempt is highly likely to overshadow and define the Republican National Convention, which began in Milwaukee starting on Monday, 15 July. KSG similarly expects Trump’s acceptance speech on Thursday, 18 July to be a crucial event: it is likely to act as a microcosm for how he intends to run his campaign going forward. The assassination attempt indirectly featured on the first day of the convention, where Trump was officially nominated and made a surprise appearance.
3. KSG assesses Trump’s election strategy is likely to adjust to one of two ways – and could include a mixture of both:
a. One possibility is that Trump will double down on the aggressive campaigning strategy he has taken thus far, and will use the attempt to illustrate his campaign messaging of how Biden has negatively influenced American society.
b. A second possibility is that Trump may flip his current approach. Trump could use his acceptance speech and the Republican Convention to brand himself as a national healer, urging unity and decrying those trying to divide the country.
4. The assassination attempt is moderately likely to harm Biden’s popularity through a possible growth in Trump’s popularity. Because of Biden’s poor performance in the debate, and the ongoing commentary between Democrats and within the media about whether he should step aside, Biden has dominated the negative news headlines. In response, Trump has remained subdued, letting Biden absorb the negative press. KSG assesses the assassination attempt is likely to accelerate this trend in the short to medium-term.
5. Finally, KSG assesses thst the assassination attempt is unlikely to alter Democrats’ long-term re-election strategy. Although the Biden campaign and Democrats may retreat from some negative rhetoric, the reaction to J.D. Vance’s appointment as the Republican VP candidate demonstrates the over-arching campaign strategy appears unchanged.
By Joel Battle, Americas Analyst