Key Takeaways:
US officials have sought to minimise the perception of danger surrounding the Russian naval display. KSG agrees with the low threat rating associated with Moscow's move.
Russia's action appear designed to deter US support to Ukraine. This is unlikely to succeed.
Cuban citizens woke up to large Russian warships stationed at Havana Bay on Wednesday, 12 June 2024. In many media outlets across the world, the event has been described as a '1962 Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0'.
Cuba is still affected by one of the most long-lasting US economic sanctions, which leads Havana to keep close economic and defence ties with Moscow. The warship display comes in a moment of increased US-Russia hostility over Ukraine, with Putin recently declaring that the use of Western weapons inside some Russian territories represents “direct involvement in the war” on the part of the West.
While to many, this inevitably resembles the infamous 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, US officials have stressed that this is not the case and it is not cause for alarm, arguing that these types of naval displays are a recurring occurrence. KSG agree with the US officials assessment of the situation. However, the timing of the event appears to be an attempt at warning the US of Russia's ability to contest it in the US's home theatre, not simply in Europe. KSG assess that this is unlikely to deter US support for Ukraine
Looking forward:
Moscow’s demonstration of its blue-water naval capability demonstrates its intent to challenge the US global order, and to show that US (and NATO) commitment to Ukrainian defence will not prevent Moscow from pursuing its war aims in Ukraine. It reiterates that in the coming months, the US will will be forced to balance large financial and military investment into supporting Ukraine, as well as its Allies in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific.
However, this complex geopolitical equilibrium may change if a less interventionist Trump is elected, with US elections increasingly opposed to high spending on defence and foreign affairs.
By Silvia Borin, Head of Geoeconomics Analysis