Key Takeaways:
North Korea has continued to flex its ballistic missile capabilities, in response to deeper defence cooperation between the US and its Indo-Pacific allies.
North Korea, independent of its traditional allies in China and Russia, signals its capacity to present its own strategic deterrent in the Indo-Pacific.
Given North Korea’s limited capabilities, and the US’ significant interests in consolidating an Indo-Pacific presence against China, it is unlikely that this independent deterrent will hold off growing American security cooperation.
KSG does not assess significant economic or business disruption as likely following the event.
On 01/07/2024, North Korea test-launched two ballistic missiles from Changyon County, an area in the southwestern province of South Hwanghae. The two missiles, launched approximately ten minutes apart, flew 600 and 120 kilometers northeast respectively. Intelligence is unclear as to where they landed, but based on their ranges, the former landed off the coast of Chongjin, and the latter fell inland – potentially near Pyongyang. These tests follow up North Korea's resumption of missile testing in mid-June, 2024.
Pictured: Changyon County, South Hwanghae, North Korea
These tests were in response to a joint military exercise between the United States, Japan, and South Korea, to which North Korean military leadership vowed to deliver “offensive and overwhelming countermeasures” in the event of threats to the “sovereignty, security and interests of the state”, and to regional stability.
Beginning on 27/06/2024, the “Freedom Edge” drills saw three days of joint military exercises involving aircraft from all three nations. According to the official trilateral statement, major assets like the helicopter carrier JS Ise from the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force, the South Korean destroyer ROKS Seoae-Ryu-Seong-ryong, and the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt were present.
Beyond signalling commitment to intensified Indo-Pacific defence cooperation through involving major maritime and air assets, the exercises specifically prioritised a wide range of security practices, including “cooperative ballistic missile defence, air defence, anti-submarine warfare, search and rescue, maritime interdiction, and defensive cyber-training”, demonstrating the multi-domain nature of US security interests.
Notably, both of North Korea’s traditional allies – China and Russia – have remained silent on both “Freedom Edge” and North Korea’s test-launches as of 01/07/2024. This is in spite of Russia and North Korea signing a mutual defence pact earlier in June, and the Sino-North Korean defence pact being in force since 1961.
Source: Politico
Looking forward:
KSG assesses that the US’ growing presence in the Indo-Pacific, and security engagement with Indo-Pacific allies has galvanised resistance against it. Although the US’ primary strategic goal is to curtail and deter China, engagement with North Korea’s traditional regional adversaries has yielded a threatening response.
KSG notes that North Korea’s independent communications of threat, and independent launch of ballistic missiles is an attempt to highlight the country’s own strategic deterrent against Western encroachment. Although its security interests complement Sino-Russian interests, North Korean independent response is a major strategic risk, especially given its nuclear capabilities.
KSG assesses that while resurgent North Korean missile testing is a major geopolitical risk, the US’ deep interests in maintaining a security presence in the Indo-Pacific means that as of now, North Korea lacks a comprehensive deterrent against the growing US Indo-Pacific presence.
North Korean deterrence efforts have done little to dissuade Washington from defence engagement in the past, and KSG sees no evidence that this will change. Business operations in the region have become acclimatized to North Korean activities such as those recently undertaking, and thus the event is unlikely to have any impact on business operations or regional economies.
By Joaquin Magno, Indo-Pacific Analyst.