Key Takeaways:
Joaquin Guzman Lopez, son of ‘El Chapo’, is suspected of striking a deal with the FBI while handing himself into authorities alongside ‘El Mayo’ Zambada.
Joaquin Guzman Lopez and ‘El Mayo’ Zambada have pleaded ‘not guilty’ at ongoing trials in Chicago.
The Sinaloa Cartel, allegedly led by the detainees, is largely responsible for the trafficking of fentanyl into the United States.
These high-profile arrests demonstrate the Biden Administration’s commitment to a crackdown on fentanyl trade, addressing a highly significant social and public health issue, given that fentanyl abuse is the leading cause of death amongst Americans aged 18-45.
Events Brief
Claims of ‘El Mayo’ Zambada being kidnapped by Joaquin Guzman Lopez, son of ‘El Chapo’, have spread following their arrest upon arrival in El Paso, Texas. Lopez is thought to have lured Zambada into the plane by assuring him they were flying from the state of Sonora to view investment properties.
Zambada has been sought by U.S. authorities since 2003; however, efforts to detain Zambada have increased following a surge of fentanyl-related deaths and the Biden Administration’s fentanyl crackdown since 2020.
Both detainees led the Sinaloa Cartel alongside ‘El Chapo’s’ other sons. The Sinaloa Cartel is one of the largest suppliers of fentanyl to the U.S., which has now become the leading cause of death for Americans between 18 and 45. Trials are ongoing in Chicago against both alleged drug lords, where Zambada’s lawyer is maintaining that this is a case of abduction.
Involvement from Mexico
Mexican Security Minister Rosa Rodriguez stated that Mexican authorities did not participate in the operation but were informed by the U.S. government. President Lopez Obrador was only notified later in the day, seeing as though previous anti-drug operations have failed after leaks in Mexico. This raises the question of corruption within the government, which Mexico’s president-elect Claudia Sheinbaum is likely to encounter while tackling serious security challenges regarding Mexico’s cartels. Transparent communication and collaboration between Mexico and the U.S. seems unlikely to work to the advantage of both countries if the goal is to combat the trafficking of fentanyl and other synthetic opioids. There have been several instances in which Mexico expressed dissatisfaction with U.S. involvement in its fight against drug cartels. One of these cases was the arrest of General Cienfuegos in 2020, where, much like this latest instance, Mexico was not informed in advance.
Though Mexico’s reaction suggests that Mexico perceives this as a challenge to Mexico’s judicial processes and potentially disrespect within the bilateral relationship, the U.S. will likely continue to carry out these arrests without communication to ensure success. Mexican intelligence, working with the army and National Guard, oversaw the arrest of Heibar Josué in Sinaloa in 2022. Mexico and the U.S. have been working in the last years to curb the effects of fentanyl, distributed and enabled by the overwhelming control that the cartel has established throughout both countries.
Involvement from U.S. Law Enforcement
U.S. President Joe Biden has been fighting against the effects of fentanyl trafficking from Mexico into the United States. KSG assesses that the results of the U.S. election in November could see a heightening of intensity in the fight against drug trafficking from Mexico. Chad Wolf, Acting Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security under President Trump, publicly stated that Biden’s reversal of policies under Trump has been demonstrated by the growing number of cartels smuggling drugs across the border.
Relations between Mexico and the U.S. must be monitored to ensure that upcoming president Claudia Sheinbaum remains vocal about the national issue of drug policy. The re-election of Donald Trump is likely to deteriorate relations with Mexico, which were restored under Biden’s administration.
Long-term, Sheinbaum has vowed to focus on border security and law enforcement to target organized crime. KSG assesses that bilateral and multilateral efforts must be used to share intelligence and public health resources, such as prevention and treatment, in order to tackle this crisis.
Looking Forward:
KSG anticipates that president-elect Claudia Sheinbaum will prioritize the success of security policies, which previously failed with AMLO’s “abrazos no balazos” stance.
However, the U.S. and Mexico are unlikely to be fully transparent in their collaborations when dealing with drug kingpin arrests.
KSG anticipates that a reduced sentence for Guzman López could incentivize other drug lords to collaborate with U.S. law enforcement to reduce the risk of large penalties.
KSG assesses that these arrests are likely to have a positive effect on the U.S. law enforcement response to the fentanyl crisis. However, individual arrests are unlikely to solve the wider issue as the highly transnational nature of the fentanyl trade means that individual drug lords are relatively expendable.
The fentanyl crisis is highly likely to continue having adverse effects on major US cities, such as San Francisco and Philadelphia, where significant social and public health issues have arisen due to high levels of fentanyl addiction and is disincentivizing business activity and tourism.
By Alexandra Cammack, Latin America Analyst